Fatigue reads in 3rd set — real edge or confirmation bias?

[OddsArchitect]

The narrative is that players visibly fatigued in the 3rd set are undervalued by in-play models. Tested this for 6 months across 47 ATP matches where I judged a player 'clearly tired' (slower walks between points, towel breaks at every changeover). Backed their opponent in-play. Net: +£140 across 47 bets.

Small sample. The edge is real but narrow.

[RafaFan Bet]

'Towel breaks every changeover' is the most reliable single-variable read. Better than ace count or first-serve % which are the model inputs.